Shortly after January 20th, 2009, the break-even issue became essentially irrelevant, because there was no factory ammo at ANY cost. That could happen again, which does factor into a decision to buy reloading equipment.
It is the case that the payback on 9mm will be extremely long if it's even possible, particularly with a progressive setup, but there are two other things to consider:
1. Buy cheaper equipment, like a single stage press. It just depends on how valuable your time is. If you're retired, it keeps you busy and feeling productive, which can have a major impact on your health. (Little-known ugly fact: Any actuary can tell you that the average life expectancy for an older man who is forcibly seperated from his job just is 18 MONTHS.)
2. Shoot expensive calibers, and you break even in 5 boxes of ammo, if that's what's important to you. 500 Smith ammo is $2.50 a round, and 338 Ultramag ammo is $4.00 a round.
Takes slightly longer for 50AE, 10mm, 45 Super, 357 SIG, or 9x23 Winchester, but at today's inflated prices it's still very doable.