Drones and the future of war

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Drones and the future of war

Postby Lumpy on Thu Jul 10, 2025 3:41 pm

Advances in technology have changed the environment that people fighting on the ground with small arms would have to face. The first was around the beginning of the 20th century when artillery ranges increased to over the horizon indirect fire. This in World War One and more advanced aircraft in World War Two led to the modern regime of what I call Death From The Sky. The modern era of combined arms and the very nearly indispensable need for air cover. Even though air power alone doesn't win wars, a resistance or rebellion of foot soldiers fighting against foes with air supremacy usually die like flies.

Now we're entering the era of the Robot Death Machine. What does this bode for the idea of foot soldiers with guns fighting for their freedom? As George Orwell pointed out:
ages in which the dominant weapon is expensive or difficult to make will tend to be ages of despotism, whereas when the dominant weapon is cheap and simple, the common people have a chance. Thus, for example, tanks, battleships and bombing planes are inherently tyrannical weapons, while rifles, muskets, long-bows and hand-grenades are inherently democratic weapons. A complex weapon makes the strong stronger, while a simple weapon — so long as there is no answer to it — gives claws to the weak.

The great age of democracy and of national self-determination was the age of the musket and the rifle. After the invention of the flintlock, and before the invention of the percussion cap, the musket was a fairly efficient weapon, and at the same time so simple that it could be produced almost anywhere. Its combination of qualities made possible the success of the American and French revolutions, and made a popular insurrection a more serious business than it could be in our own day. After the musket came the breech-loading rifle. This was a comparatively complex thing, but it could still be produced in scores of countries, and it was cheap, easily smuggled and economical of ammunition. Even the most backward nation could always get hold of rifles from one source or another, so that Boers, Bulgars, Abyssinians, Moroccans — even Tibetans — could put up a fight for their independence, sometimes with success. But thereafter every development in military technique has favoured the State as against the individual, and the industrialised country as against the backward one. There are fewer and fewer foci of power. Already, in 1939, there were only five states capable of waging war on the grand scale, and now there are only three — ultimately, perhaps, only two. This trend has been obvious for years, and was pointed out by a few observers even before 1914. The one thing that might reverse it is the discovery of a weapon — or, to put it more broadly, of a method of fighting — not dependent on huge concentrations of industrial plant.


Is "the great age of democracy" based on citizen-soldiers with guns over now?
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Re: Drones and the future of war

Postby Sorcerer on Fri Jul 11, 2025 6:37 am

As demonstrated a month ago,no. Politicians that believe they are supreme are in reality very vulnerable. Starting at the tail of the dragon and working forward until you get to the head. As the saying goes, how do you eat the elephant? One bite at a time.
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Re: Drones and the future of war

Postby atomic41 on Fri Jul 11, 2025 8:01 am

This is one of the reasons that the USMC is retiring tanks. The battlefield is different going forward.
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Re: Drones and the future of war

Postby Lumpy on Fri Jul 11, 2025 11:22 am

To expand on what I was getting at, the antis for years now have been claiming that the Second Amendment is as obsolete as rank and file infantry formations; that armed citizens wouldn't stand a chance against a modern professional army. Now I'm wondering if technology is making that pronouncement come true. Not just drones but things like 24/7 lingering aerial surveillance with amplified light and thermal imaging, electronic warfare, etc. The US military has spent decades experimenting with and implementing such anti-insurgency technologies; and the Mujahedeen only won in Afghanistan because the country as a whole was a quagmire— they sure as hell didn't win ground battles except small-scale and temporarily.

drone-wars.png


Would an uprising against a tyranny be nearly impossible anywhere but in heavily wooded terrain during low overcast? And even then would the militia's most indispensable weapon not be a gun but a radar/infrared-blocking poncho and a (hopefully!) secure encrypted radio?
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Re: Drones and the future of war

Postby Bearcatrp on Fri Jul 11, 2025 11:36 am

Makes you wonder why they really wanted to ban DJI drones. Don’t want civilians using these as a kamkazzi weapon. New ones come with that chip that shows up on radar. Glad I didn’t sell my Aton .
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