I'm discouraged...

Gun related chat that doesn't fit in another forum

Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby Ghost on Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:17 am

Holland&Holland wrote:
Jack's My dog wrote:You guys are going to make me watch the whole damn thing aren't you.


It really is not worth it, but yea... sorry

Kind of like watching a SOTU ;) It will open your eyes.

The politicians will anger you. "high caliber, rapid fire, assault weapons".

If Marco had said teachers should have the option of defending, if they so choose, and it should at least be looked into. Then if he'd have stayed away from the mag capacity discussion. I would have actually said he did a fair job but he didn't and gave them more "hope".

But, hearing how the people in the crowd react, act, what they really want and what we are up against is worth the watch.
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby Holland&Holland on Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:25 am

Ghost wrote:
Holland&Holland wrote:
Jack's My dog wrote:You guys are going to make me watch the whole damn thing aren't you.


It really is not worth it, but yea... sorry

Kind of like watching a SOTU ;) It will open your eyes.

The politicians will anger you. "high caliber, rapid fire, assault weapons".

If Marco had said teachers should have the option of defending, if they so choose, and it should at least be looked into. Then if he'd have stayed away from the mag capacity discussion. I would have actually said he did a fair job but he didn't and gave them more "hope".

But, hearing how the people in the crowd react, act, what they really want and what we are up against is worth the watch.


That was not a crowd. It was a mob, no good could come of it only bad. To be honest, I wish Marco had not attended and I wish the NRA, though well spoken, had declined as well, then it could be written off as the left wing witch hunt that it was. Marco cracked under pressure, I wish he would have stood toe toe to toe with the father who lost his daughter and said, "I am so sorry for your loss, no parent should have to go through what you did, however, no law we enact is going to ensure that nothing bad will ever happen again. Anyone who tells you differently is flat out lying to you. What you are asking for is a complete reversal of the American way of life, an ideal laid down in a set of documents at the founding of this country that I believe in full. It is an ideal that I can not betray, will not betray, and my duty to not betray. I understand you are grieving, I grieve with you but betraying our ideals will not make this go away and will put more Americans into greater danger in the future"

I guess that is why I am not in politics :roll:
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby Ghost on Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:27 am

Holland&Holland wrote:That was not a crowd. It was a mob, no good could come of it only bad. To be honest, I wish Marco had not attended and I wish the NRA, though well spoken, had declined as well, then it could be written off as the left wing witch hunt that it was. Marco cracked under pressure, I wish he would have stood toe toe to toe with the father who lost his daughter and said, "I am so sorry for your loss, no parent should have to go through what you did, however, no law we enact is going to ensure that nothing bad will ever happen again. Anyone who tells you differently is flat out lying to you. What you are asking for is a complete reversal of the American way of life, an ideal laid down in a set of documents at the founding of this country that I believe in full. It is an ideal that I can not betray, will not betray, and my duty to not betray. I understand you are grieving, I grieve with you but betraying our ideals will not make this go away and will put more Americans into greater danger in the future"

I guess that is why I am not in politics :roll:

Well said
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I'm discouraged...

Postby goett047 on Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:27 pm

Holland&Holland wrote:
Jack's My dog wrote:*****Please do not take the below thought as though I am suggesting conceding to an AR-15 ban, as I am not*******

I was wondering this morning how many pro-control individuals would agree to a "weapon of war/ar-15 for civilians ban" that would sunset once the military moved to lasers and rails guns, as the AR-15 would no longer be a "weapon of war". It seems they are plenty comfortable with previous weapons of war, such as lever guns, bolt guns, pump actions, falling blocks-other forms of singleshots..you get my point....Starting to think Lasers are a common sense solution we can all get behind.


They would not, did you hear them last night? They want to START with AR-15s, their full agenda is the banning of all firearms period.


This is why I have decided I’m done debating “gun control”. They don’t want reform they want a full ban. Let’s not give it to them incrementally. Let them start demanding a full repeal and see where that gets them.
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby yukonjasper on Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:06 pm

unfitmother wrote:
yukonjasper wrote:Please convince me that I'm wrong and unduly paranoid.

Read this study from last summer: http://www.people-press.org/2017/06/22/ ... bout-guns/


It took me a while to have the time to look at this. Unfortunately I am not a fan of polls. Even reputable polling companies rely on people picking up the phone when a strange number pops up - Which I never do - and of the people who pick up, only a small percentage submit to the poll. So the sampled group is really not necessarily representative of the population.

A great example was the last election which had all the polls showing Clinton winning by a landslide - I guess they were wrong, very wrong. Credibility of Polling is low and you cannot convince me without showing me how you got the numbers to call and the response rates.
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby unfitmother on Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:59 pm

yukonjasper wrote:Even reputable polling companies rely on people picking up the phone when a strange number pops up...


If one is not reading the methodologies of polls, then they aren't doing the due diligence of staying informed, IMO http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/06/22/guns-report-methodology/

The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by the Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults recruited from landline and cellphone random-digit dial (RDD) surveys. Panelists participate via monthly self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. The panel is being managed by Abt Associates.

Most of the data in this report are based on 3,930 respondents who participated in both the March 13 to 27, 2017, and April 4 to 18, 2017, waves of the panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 3,930 respondents is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Members of the American Trends Panel were recruited from two large, national landline and cellphone random-digit dial surveys conducted in English and Spanish. At the end of each survey, respondents were invited to join the panel. The first group of panelists was recruited from the 2014 Political Polarization and Typology Survey, conducted January 23 to March 16, 2014. Of the 10,013 adults interviewed, 9,809 were invited to take part in the panel and a total of 5,338 agreed to participate.4 The second group of panelists was recruited from the 2015 Survey on Government, conducted Aug. 27 to Oct. 4, 2015. Of the 6,004 adults interviewed, all were invited to join the panel, and 2,976 agreed to participate.5

The ATP data were weighted in a multistep process that begins with a base weight incorporating the respondents’ original survey selection probability and the fact that in 2014 some panelists were subsampled for invitation to the panel. Next, an adjustment was made for the fact that the propensity to join the panel and remain an active panelist varied across different groups in the sample. The final step in the weighting uses an iterative technique that aligns the sample to population benchmarks on a number of dimensions. Gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and region parameters come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2015 American Community Survey. The county-level population density parameter (deciles) comes from the 2010 U.S. decennial census. The telephone service benchmark is comes from the January-June 2016 National Health Interview Survey and is projected to 2017. The volunteerism benchmark comes from the 2015 Current Population Survey Volunteer Supplement. The party affiliation benchmark is the average of the three most recent Pew Research Center general public telephone surveys. The internet access benchmark comes from the 2015 Pew Research Center Survey on Government. Respondents who did not previously have internet access are treated as not having internet access for weighting purposes. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish, but the Hispanic sample in the American Trends Panel is predominantly native born and English speaking.


There is more than one gun-related poll I've come across that had terrible methodology (they were all anti-gun). The Pew Research Center isn't one of those places (so far).
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby yukonjasper on Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:23 pm

Understood, but the underpinnings of their methodology is yet another survey from another organization and although it all sounds like they really have it nailed down, its not enough for me to hang my hat on. I know people love Polls, but they don't do much for me. There is nothing at stake for these people, they can answer the question one way today and the opposite tomorrow. Are you getting the way they really feel or a reflection of an emotion evoked by an emotional "news" report.

Back to the original point. What convinces you that the Anti 2nd Amendment crowd wouldn't prefer that the 2nd amendment rights were curtailed to the point that weapons were banned for public ownership? I get some polling data that there is a split in this country. The issue, to me, is that there are enough people who are dispassionate enough that if push came to shove, they would not defend their 2nd Amendment rights and would abdicate those rights since they are not personal to them and although they like the concept are not committed to the ideals they represent. No poll can draw that out - How far would you go to retain your Constitutional Rights?

Further to the "accord" idea - what indications have we received from the Anti 2A crowd that they are OK with Bump Stock and nothing more? Where else have they pushed, made ground and kept pushing. The Liberal Agenda is advanced with a series of incremental moves, small, seemingly "logical" moves that as we march through time the last becomes the norm and the new ask becomes the radical idea. It inches along and never relents. It is this distrust that makes compromise impossible - There is no end, until the end.
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby MJY65 on Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:40 pm

yukonjasper wrote:Further to the "accord" idea - what indications have we received from the Anti 2A crowd that they are OK with Bump Stock and nothing more? Where else have they pushed, made ground and kept pushing. The Liberal Agenda is advanced with a series of incremental moves, small, seemingly "logical" moves that as we march through time the last becomes the norm and the new ask becomes the radical idea. It inches along and never relents. It is this distrust that makes compromise impossible - There is no end, until the end.


There is no indication of stopping. Is there even a way to insure such a thing? Since we're talking fantasy, what if there were a way to have an iron clad deal that stated in exchange for prohibiting future sale of ARs, there could be no additional gun control measures of any kind introduced at either the state or federal level for 50 years? Would either side take it?
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby unfitmother on Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:41 pm

Rapid fire:

I meant political accord, not accord on gun control. People in power perpetuate the idea that there is a culture war going on. I don't think there is, I actually think if it weren't for the federal government, we'd all be getting along much better.

I look to social sciences because otherwise I feel like I'm just making guesses about society based on my confirmation bias, or worse, the MSM.
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby unfitmother on Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:48 pm

yukonjasper wrote:How far would you go to retain your Constitutional Rights?

I'm not going to post about that on the internet. I'm not paranoid, it's just not worth my energy to lay out all my cards to people I barely know. If you really need to know, and you have some time some weekday afternoon or evening, come slap some steel with me and I can tell you then 8-)
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby Ghost on Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:36 pm

Well there it is
https://thinkprogress.org/first-national-bank-ends-nra-visa-card-5809195f1672/

For more than a decade, the First National Bank of Omaha has offered special branded Visa cards to National Rifle Association members to support the group. On Thursday, following two days of public pressure, the bank announced it “will not renew its contract” with the NRA.

The bank confirmed, in a tweet, that “customer feedback caused” the decision:


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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby Lumpy on Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:07 pm

Is there really any effective way to (nearly) eliminate the occasional spree shooting without more or less banning guns altogether? Because here's the problem: the antis basically say that this should never happen, ever- anymore than children should ever be killed or injured by pet wolverines, which doesn't actually happen because it's illegal to keep wolverines as pets. That's how the antis see guns: a pointless, needlessly hazardous thing that is unjustifiable and should be illegal. They don't care how many lawful, responsible wolverine owners there are, or the legitimate reasons for keeping pet wolverines, or how statistically rare wolverine attacks are; they want a rate of zero.

Yes, the above is a bit tongue-in-cheek, exaggerated to make a point. But substitute "pit bull" for wolverine and you doubtless see the analogy: many people in fact think pit bulls should be illegal. Coming back to my original question, part of why I'm discouraged is because if the only counter-arguments I can put forward amount to saying "the occasional pet wolverine attack is regrettable but unavoidable", then I've lost the debate.
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby Holland&Holland on Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:16 pm

Lumpy wrote:Is there really any effective way to (nearly) eliminate the occasional spree shooting without more or less banning guns altogether? Because here's the problem: the antis basically say that this should never happen, ever- anymore than children should ever be killed or injured by pet wolverines, which doesn't actually happen because it's illegal to keep wolverines as pets. That's how the antis see guns: a pointless, needlessly hazardous thing that is unjustifiable and should be illegal. They don't care how many lawful, responsible wolverine owners there are, or the legitimate reasons for keeping pet wolverines, or how statistically rare wolverine attacks are; they want a rate of zero.

Yes, the above is a bit tongue-in-cheek, exaggerated to make a point. But substitute "pit bull" for wolverine and you doubtless see the analogy: many people in fact think pit bulls should be illegal. Coming back to my original question, part of why I'm discouraged is because if the only counter-arguments I can put forward amount to saying "the occasional pet wolverine attack is regrettable but unavoidable", then I've lost the debate.


The problem is you are arguing an argument that you can never win. It is well documented, as you stated, that there are those on the left (I would assert most) feel that ALL guns should be banned. So they do not come to the argument with a truthful position. They look at, as stated last night by the dem on the stage, that if they start with the first 200, then they can move on to the others. This was not hid, it was stated, the first 200 is only a start. So if they truly want all guns banned, and we are not willing to give in to that, there really is not compromise that can be reached. I have stated my position above. I am sorry this happened. I truly am, I wish I could prevent it, but I can't. What I can do is offer solutions that would increase school security, increase student safety, increase student participation in society, etc. I can help. If they want to take guns from law abiding citizens to try to feel like they accomplished something they did not, I can not and will not support that as that will not achieve their end goal and WILL cause more death to others. Because where does it stop? We have instances where police have used guns and innocent or presumed innocent people have died. So after we ban my guns, should we disarm the police? I mean guns are illegal right? So why do they need guns?
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby brad3579 on Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:18 pm

Lumpy wrote:Coming back to my original question, part of why I'm discouraged is because if the only counter-arguments I can put forward amount to saying "the occasional pet wolverine attack is regrettable but unavoidable", then I've lost the debate.

The fact that anyone with no priors can walk into a gun store and buy a semi-automatic rifle with removable magazines means that it's easier to casually commit gun massacres than if it took serious effort and delay to obtain such a weapon

Taking parts from two of your posts I can see it as if all the guns were gone what would stop these same people from taking a car and driving it into a crowd of people with the same results or many other things that could be done.
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Re: I'm discouraged...

Postby Ghost on Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:25 pm

Lumpy, they find a way to get what they want. Surprisingly this kid in France didn't kill anybody.
France school shooting: Teenage boy arrested after four hurt
16 March 2017
The suspect, who was reportedly armed with a rifle, two handguns and two hand grenades, was arrested "very quickly" after launching the attack.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39292755
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