Why prepping is rational statistically

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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby jdege on Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:16 pm

I remember reading, once, an article by a prepper who'd been thinking about about buying another set of guns.

He was a disciple of Mel Tappan who argued that everyone should a a battle rifle, a combat pistol, a shotgun, etc., for each adult and responsible child in the household, and a spare set for guests.

He was thinking about buying a second spare set.

Then he realized that for the same money he could buy enough food to feed everyone who lived within ten miles for a year.

Truth is, WTSHTF, it's relationships that count most. Having friends and neighbors you can count on for help, and who can count on you.
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Ghost on Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:57 pm

jdege wrote:I remember reading, once, an article by a prepper who'd been thinking about about buying another set of guns.

He was a disciple of Mel Tappan who argued that everyone should a a battle rifle, a combat pistol, a shotgun, etc., for each adult and responsible child in the household, and a spare set for guests.

He was thinking about buying a second spare set.

Then he realized that for the same money he could buy enough food to feed everyone who lived within ten miles for a year.

Truth is, WTSHTF, it's relationships that count most. Having friends and neighbors you can count on for help, and who can count on you.

Get both?
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Lumpy on Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:03 pm

Going back to the Bosnian war survivor: after guns he stresses the importance of numbers; he repeatedly says "lone wolves" didn't make it.

He also stresses the importance of remaining inconspicuous; don't look like you have anything worth stealing. He says the obvious fortresses- barred windows, etc.- were targeted first.

Medical supplies, and especially knowledge, were literally life savers. As many people died from infection and bad sanitation as from gunshot wounds. Stock up on antibiotics, antiseptics, bleach, water treatment, etc.

Gold and silver weren't as valuable as small easily traded commodities that people desperately needed. His top two were fire starters and alcohol. (He was lucky enough to loot a couple of hundred liters from a distillery).

And guns. He repeatedly says that with guns and ammo you could always work something out, but without them you were screwed.
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Holland&Holland on Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:46 pm

Lumpy wrote:Going back to the Bosnian war survivor: after guns he stresses the importance of numbers; he repeatedly says "lone wolves" didn't make it.

He also stresses the importance of remaining inconspicuous; don't look like you have anything worth stealing. He says the obvious fortresses- barred windows, etc.- were targeted first.

Medical supplies, and especially knowledge, were literally life savers. As many people died from infection and bad sanitation as from gunshot wounds. Stock up on antibiotics, antiseptics, bleach, water treatment, etc.

Gold and silver weren't as valuable as small easily traded commodities that people desperately needed. His top two were fire starters and alcohol. (He was lucky enough to loot a couple of hundred liters from a distillery).

And guns. He repeatedly says that with guns and ammo you could always work something out, but without them you were screwed.


Makes sense to me.
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Tronster on Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:18 pm

Just look at Venezuela right now, 90% of the grid has been without power for days and the economy is going through a massive hyperinflation. Perishable food is rotting, medications are going bad (lots of meds require refrigeration), people can't get fuel, and patients in hospitals on ventilators, dialysis, etc are dying because the hospitals were ill equipped without backup generators.

As far as trading guns or ammo, why on earth would you want to trade away something that could be immediately used against you?

Other than a hedge against inflation, trade silver or gold is useless in a disaster situation.

Realistically you can prepare for short term food shortages, power outages, riots, epidemics, or natural disasters. Anything more is fantasy.
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Holland&Holland on Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:36 pm

Tronster wrote:Just look at Venezuela right now, 90% of the grid has been without power for days and the economy is going through a massive hyperinflation. Perishable food is rotting, medications are going bad (lots of meds require refrigeration), people can't get fuel, and patients in hospitals on ventilators, dialysis, etc are dying because the hospitals were ill equipped without backup generators.

As far as trading guns or ammo, why on earth would you want to trade away something that could be immediately used against you?

Other than a hedge against inflation, trade silver or gold is useless in a disaster situation.

Realistically you can prepare for short term food shortages, power outages, riots, epidemics, or natural disasters. Anything more is fantasy.


In your opinion.
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Tronster on Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:45 pm

Holland&Holland wrote:In your opinion.

And we all know what opinions are anatomically equivalent to...
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Holland&Holland on Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:00 am

Tronster wrote:
Holland&Holland wrote:In your opinion.

And we all know what opinions are anatomically equivalent to...

Okey dokey then
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Lumpy on Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:06 pm

Tronster wrote:As far as trading guns or ammo, why on earth would you want to trade away something that could be immediately used against you?

Bosnian War Survivor (henceforth abbreviated BWS) said that he was able to trade for guns from people who had a few to spare for supplies they desperately needed. Aside from alcohol he had a propane tank that he was able to use to refill disposable lighters. Most people could not obtain enough fuel to keep any sort of fire going 24/7 so being able to light one was vital. Lighters, matches, flints, etc. (I'll add that I'm glad I know how to use primitive flint, steel and charcloth).

Tronster wrote:Realistically you can prepare for short term food shortages, power outages, riots, epidemics, or natural disasters. Anything more is fantasy.

Unless you're into hard core off-the-grid: a plot of land somewhere where you and your family and/or neighbors have the skills to maintain a self-sufficiency lifestyle indefinitely. A few people actually do.
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Holland&Holland on Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:24 pm

Lumpy wrote:
Tronster wrote:As far as trading guns or ammo, why on earth would you want to trade away something that could be immediately used against you?

Bosnian War Survivor (henceforth abbreviated BWS) said that he was able to trade for guns from people who had a few to spare for supplies they desperately needed. Aside from alcohol he had a propane tank that he was able to use to refill disposable lighters. Most people could not obtain enough fuel to keep any sort of fire going 24/7 so being able to light one was vital. Lighters, matches, flints, etc. (I'll add that I'm glad I know how to use primitive flint, steel and charcloth).

Tronster wrote:Realistically you can prepare for short term food shortages, power outages, riots, epidemics, or natural disasters. Anything more is fantasy.

Unless you're into hard core off-the-grid: a plot of land somewhere where you and your family and/or neighbors have the skills to maintain a self-sufficiency lifestyle indefinitely. A few people actually do.

I think Tronster already gave up.
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Grayskies on Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:59 pm

Netflix has the show Doomsday Preppers. No idea if it is any good.
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby yukonjasper on Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:09 pm

I think it used to be on A&E. There is a thread here on the board when it was on originally.
Deo Adjuvante Non Timendum - (with the help of God there is nothing to be afraid of)
Spectamur Agendo - (We are proven by our actions)
Non Ducor, Duco - (I am not led, I lead)
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Ghost on Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:16 pm

Grayskies wrote:Netflix has the show Doomsday Preppers. No idea if it is any good.

Some of those people are nuts. Some are geniuses.

As long as you can distinguish it’s all good.
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Grayskies on Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:52 pm

Ghost wrote:
Grayskies wrote:Netflix has the show Doomsday Preppers. No idea if it is any good.

Some of those people are nuts. Some are geniuses.

As long as you can distinguish it’s all good.

I post on this forum, I'm good! :D
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Re: Why prepping is rational statistically

Postby Ghost on Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:17 pm

Grayskies wrote:
Ghost wrote:
Grayskies wrote:Netflix has the show Doomsday Preppers. No idea if it is any good.

Some of those people are nuts. Some are geniuses.

As long as you can distinguish it’s all good.

I post on this forum, I'm good! :D

I was speaking in generalities, wasn’t directed at anyone.
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