MNGunTalk.com

387,000 out of a population of 5.7 million = 6.7%.

Rip Van Winkle wrote:387,000 out of a population of 5.7 million = 6.7%.

What does the latest census have for a number of underaged people not eligible for a permit?

gun_fan111v2 wrote:

Rip Van Winkle wrote:387,000 out of a population of 5.7 million = 6.7%.

What does the latest census have for a number of underaged people not eligible for a permit?

This site says 23% of Minnesota's population is under 18. So that would be 387,000 out of about 4.39 million- about 11.34%

I wonder how many in the state are ineligible due to a criminal record?

Lumpy wrote:

gun_fan111v2 wrote:

Rip Van Winkle wrote:387,000 out of a population of 5.7 million = 6.7%.

What does the latest census have for a number of underaged people not eligible for a permit?

This site says 23% of Minnesota's population is under 18. So that would be 387,000 out of about 4.39 million- about 11.34%

You might want to recheck your math.
4,390,000 * 10% = 439,000

The correct answer is approximately 8.8%

Might be a little lower since PTC is age 21. Still, it is a pretty high percentage.

Assuming 5% of adults 21 and older in MN have a PTC, and not all carry, in any large crowd, perhaps 3 out of 100 are packing... legally.

So... if you are at a grocery store and there are 100 shoppers, 3 have guns.

Tell this figure to an anti-gunner and their jaw will drop in astonishment.

Lots of new math going on here.

Unless I missed it, I didn't see a breakdown in renewals vs. new permits in the report summary at the beginning. However when you go to the breakdown by county report there is. Compared to the more rural counties, the counties containing the Twin Cities and suburbs seem to have had significantly more new permits by percentage than renewals.

Anoka new- 5218 ren- 1770
Carver new- 1311 ren- 412
Dakota new- 5057 ren- 1687
Hennepin new- 14395 ren- 2493
Ramsey new- 6193 ren 1274
Scott new- 1995 ren 733
Wright new 2365 ren 887

To me the total number of permits is important, but the new permits each year vs. renewals can be a better judge of where the trend is going.

Re: New Math.

One of the most useful things I learned in college was the ability to make quick approximations based on limited givens to determine if a figure is reasonable.

I'm a physicist by education and in the lower-level undergrad classes, they'd often halt the lesson at hand and ask questions like "how many snowflakes fell in MN last night", or "how many bricks are in the outer surfaces of the Empire State Building." (or more humorously, the classic questions that start with something like "consider a spherical cow, what....")

They'd then watch as the students quickly came up with basic approximations (like how many snowflakes fall per minute per a unit of area) and (bricks per unit area) and multiply things out and make sure the units clobber to the correct one. Getting under an order of magnitude was really good.

Tradesmen are often way better at this sort of thing than a bookish STEM major.

Throughout life, these types of mental exercises help immensely with quickly evaluating statements whether in current events or business issues. i.e. does the final conclusion make sense and worthy of decisions.. or is it BS.

The OP posting is good and tells lots about the state of PTC in MN. It's quite astounding and good.... just needs a little arithmetic fine-tuning.... just needs the population of MN age 21 and older and also how many let the PTC lapse and of course sig figs.... I winged it and probably am pretty close...

Edit: the renewal rate (as posted above) is actually a derivative. and indeed does tell more of the story.