According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

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According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby jdege on Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:45 am

According to Real Clear Politics MN2 and MN3 are likely Dem pickups:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

That's Jason Lewis:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/mn/minnesota_2nd_district_lewis_vs_craig-6380.html

And Erik Paulsen:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/mn/minnesota_3rd_district_paulsen_vs_phillips-6345.html

We can't let that happen.

It'd be nice if the GOP picked up MN1 and MN8. It'd be joyous if we could pick up MN7.

But if we lose MN2 and MN3 it'll be a disaster.
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Re: According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby Ghost on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:18 am

How can Jason Lewis lose?
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According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby INOR on Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:34 am

Looked at 2016 results. Kstp poll had Craig at +5 before election but Lewis won by +2.2. I wouldn’t get your undies in a bunch just yet.


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Re: According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby Ghost on Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:38 am

INOR wrote:Looked at 2016 results. Kstp poll had Craig at +5 before election but Lewis won by +2.2. I wouldn’t get your undies in a bunch just yet.


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They’ll say he had a Trump bump. I just don’t see him losing.
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According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby INOR on Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:16 pm

Well +2 is a pretty slim victory for a R candidate in the 2nd. Lot of people in the district don’t like him.


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Re: According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby Ghost on Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:20 pm

INOR wrote:Well +2 is a pretty slim victory for a R candidate in the 2nd. Lot of people in the district don’t like him.


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Why don’t they like him?
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Re: According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby yukonjasper on Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:23 pm

If 2016 taught us anything it's that polls are poor indicators of results. I get 2 calls a day that i don't pick up because I just don't want to talk to a pollster. To truly understand a poll you have to know the methodology of the sample pool selection. I have seen polls that rely on newspaper subscribers. Lots of conservatives don't subscribe to liberal rags. Just an example. I am not saying that anyone should completely ignore polls or become complacent, i just don't think most polls are worth more than a passing glance. I do agree that there should be no reason to lose those districts. I've donated more this year in lieu of volunteering. I have some personal commitments that have taken my time this cycle. Time effort and or donation to your candidates are needed these days-a vote is necessary but the extra will mean success or failure.
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According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby INOR on Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:53 pm

For being unavailable...no real town halls, not being responsive to people in his district contacting him, for being supportive of increasing fiscal deficits when he purported to be a fiscal hawk willing to shut down the government if necessary. I know several people who vote R who have described him as a disappointment. Guess it remains to be seen if that translates into a vote for Craig by some of those folks.


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Re: According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby Ghost on Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:46 pm

INOR wrote:For being unavailable...no real town halls, not being responsive to people in his district contacting him, for being supportive of increasing fiscal deficits when he purported to be a fiscal hawk willing to shut down the government if necessary. I know several people who vote R who have described him as a disappointment. Guess it remains to be seen if that translates into a vote for Craig by some of those folks.


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I don’t see Craig as the solution. I was getting calls all the time to join his call in townhalls but never did.
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According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby INOR on Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:59 pm

I don’t see Craig as the solution either but some just vote opposite of whatever they don’t like at the time. I won’t vote for her. She’s a snake. I know people in the industry she worked in. None of the people that I know that worked with her at her former company liked her.


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Re: According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby jdege on Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:35 pm

Ghost wrote:
INOR wrote:Looked at 2016 results. Kstp poll had Craig at +5 before election but Lewis won by +2.2. I wouldn’t get your undies in a bunch just yet.


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They’ll say he had a Trump bump. I just don’t see him losing.

He will if too many of us don't bother to turn out.

I want to see SCOTUS hold for Young vs. Hawaii. I want to see an end to may-issue permitting.

That won't happen if the dems win the House and Trump and Kavanaugh are in the middle of impeachment proceedings.

We need them to lose, badly.
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Re: According to RCP, MN 2 and 3 are likely Dem pickups

Postby yukonjasper on Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:01 pm

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