22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby maddhunter on Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:56 pm

JJ wrote:
BC98 wrote:
LarryP wrote:I wonder if ammo companies are the blame now. It's been to long since this started. Seems like the so called gas shortage.


Federal is currently making and shipping over 4 million rounds per day and will be adding another loading line this year. I don't know about Remington or Winchester but I would bet that they are at about the same level. One thing to remember is that load lines are not a plug and play item and capital has to be justified.


Pffft :roll:

We all know the real shortage is being caused by the daily black helicopter flights out of that facility :ugeek:


You may be closer than you realize to the truth. I have two friends that work at Federal. One works on the .22 line. He says that 90% of everything leaving the facility is marked either military or leo. Somewhere in the middle is the truth!
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby Bearcatrp on Sun Jun 07, 2015 7:27 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if our retard government isn't buying it up to sell for a profit on the side at higher prices.
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby photogpat on Sun Jun 07, 2015 8:03 pm

maddhunter wrote:
You may be closer than you realize to the truth. I have two friends that work at Federal. One works on the .22 line. He says that 90% of everything leaving the facility is marked either military or leo. Somewhere in the middle is the truth!


Your friends are either liars or not paying attention.
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby JJ on Mon Jun 08, 2015 6:23 am

photogpat wrote:
maddhunter wrote:
You may be closer than you realize to the truth. I have two friends that work at Federal. One works on the .22 line. He says that 90% of everything leaving the facility is marked either military or leo. Somewhere in the middle is the truth!


Your friends are either liars or not paying attention.


^this

There are at least three Federal employees posting in this thread, who work in both buildings, who are explaining the situation. There is no grand conspiracy.

People are buying record setting amounts of 22lr, and have been for the last 3-4 years. People have awful short memories of how we got where we are today. After the 2008 election of BHO, there was a run on CF ammo of common caliber (5.56/223/308/9mm/40SW/45acp etc). But 22 lr sat there on the shelves, prolific. And a common theme began to ring across the intertubez. "Buy full size guns or 22cal conversions, there's always 22 on the shelves". Try a search on any gun forum with the keywords "22 Conversion" and start looking at posts from 2008-2011.

And people did.

Suddenly, you were seeing 1911 conversions and 1911 platform 22's hitting the market in mass. And every manufacturer started to offer a 22 version of their fullsize pistols, dedicated AR15/22 uppers, and 22 upper conversions. And a the market boomed with new 22 offerings. And more people needed to feed their guns. And new shooters flocked to 22's because they were cheap and prolific "and there's always going to be 22 on the shelves".


From a manufacturing standpoint, making huge increases in production is a difficult undertaking. 22 lines are expensive. Not just the loading lines, all the associated equipment to make components. Much of the equipment used is old, and not available for purchase, there is no plug and play equipment, each machine needs a huge amount of retro-fitting. Each new piece of equipment requires engineering to build tooling, which often cannot be done until the machinery is installed and in running condition. The equipment all needs space to operate. these things are all a huge cost. And then you have the prospect that all that money is spent, and availability increases, and you hear cries like:

Still I think high, but I am more than happy to let all those hoarders stock up on Remington rimfire. ;)


Actually found some at the Fleet Farm in Lakeville about three weeks ago (maybe four). Price wasn't the greatest ($3.69/50), but they had some.


This leads to questions about the long term viability of running all that expensive new equipment. If people aren't willing to pay what it cost to setup all that new equipment, why would a manufacturer make the investments risk?

Make no mistake, if it was easy to make money on 22lr, you would see companies like Nosler and Hornady and others who make some ammo already, jumping into the game.
Last edited by JJ on Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby atomic41 on Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:20 am

There was one more factor in the .22lr shortage. When the big government contracts for .223 were being filled, some ammo manufacturers changed over the .22lr lines to crank out .223/5.56. That seems to be the time that .22lr got to the hoarding phase.
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby BC98 on Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:29 am

atomic41 wrote:There was one more factor in the .22lr shortage. When the big government contracts for .223 were being filled, some ammo manufacturers changed over the .22lr lines to crank out .223/5.56. That seems to be the time that .22lr got to the hoarding phase.


They are not loaded on the same line or even in the same way. Where ever you got this information, they are incorrect.

To add on to JJ's post, it's not just the equipment. You have to make sure that your vendors can supply the raw materials and that you are staffed properly. If new employees need to be brought in, they have to be trained and oriented. It's not as simple as "just make more"...
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby MJY65 on Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:31 am

atomic41 wrote:There was one more factor in the .22lr shortage. When the big government contracts for .223 were being filled, some ammo manufacturers changed over the .22lr lines to crank out .223/5.56. That seems to be the time that .22lr got to the hoarding phase.


I'm curious about that one. I know that centerfire lines are changed among calibers due to demand, but was under the impression that the rimfire lines were totally separate. Perhaps someone with industry knowledge can confirm either way.
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby JJ on Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:39 am

atomic41 wrote:There was one more factor in the .22lr shortage. When the big government contracts for .223 were being filled, some ammo manufacturers changed over the .22lr lines to crank out .223/5.56. That seems to be the time that .22lr got to the hoarding phase.


Yeah, you might want to fact check that one. Just more misinformation.

BC98 wrote:They are not loaded on the same line or even in the same way. Where ever you got this information, they are incorrect.


^this.
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby atomic41 on Mon Jun 08, 2015 9:21 am

I very well could be wrong but I do remember reading this reported at some gun blog sites. I don't have industry knowledge and only know what I read on the interwebs, so if I was wrong then my apology...I hate passing on bad info! :( When I get time, I'll search for some of those stories.

In the meantime, I did a quick search and found this official statement that says there was just a high demand:

http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2013 ... ement-atk/
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby Erud on Mon Jun 08, 2015 9:32 am

Bearcatrp wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if our retard government isn't buying it up to sell for a profit on the side at higher prices.



Yeah.... :roll:
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby Rip Van Winkle on Mon Jun 08, 2015 9:56 am

Why would the manufactures want to increase production? They're currently running their lines at full production only shutting them down for maintenance.

Over one shoulder they see whining, sniveling gun owners crying about price gouging and how they will never do business with xyz company again. Over the other shoulder they see an overbearing government who'd like nothing better then an excuse to shut them down.

The sad part is, if the market were allowed to function as a free market, this shortage would have ended years ago.
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby photogpat on Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:04 am

atomic41 wrote:There was one more factor in the .22lr shortage. When the big government contracts for .223 were being filled, some ammo manufacturers changed over the .22lr lines to crank out .223/5.56. That seems to be the time that .22lr got to the hoarding phase.


Absolutely 110% false.
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby photogpat on Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:11 am

At last count there were only 4 plants in the US producing .22 rimfire - Federal, CCI, Remington, and Winchester. Anything else comes from overseas or is simply private labeled by the Big 4.

Entry into the .22LR market for new manufacturers just won't happen - not enough margin on the rounds to justify building the infrastructure...and we've already covered why increasing production quickly isn't a good option.
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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby Ironbear on Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:13 am

Ironbear's Rule: The internet will never ascribe to simple, basic, business economics; that which can be adequately explained by a crazy, spittle-flecked, convoluted, conspiracy theory.

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Re: 22 ammo shortage ease up yet?

Postby BC98 on Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:22 am

For the sake of argument, let's look at the numbers.

If we assume that Winchester and Remington are producing at the same rate as Federal, that's around 12 million rounds shipped per day. If we assume that CCI is slightly lower (~3 million), then that's 15 million rounds per day. Let's say that all of the plants are operating 7 days per week with a total of 4 weeks down per year for maintenance. That would make a total market footprint (not including imports) of over 5 billion rounds per year.

How much of that is being shot, how much is being re-sold at a huge markup, and how much is going into people's basements?
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